3222.0 - Population Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101

INTRODUCTION The population projections presented in this publication cover the period 30 June 2008 to 2101 for Australia and 30 June 2008 to 2056 for the states, territories, and capital cities/balances of state. Series B largely reflects current trends in fertility, life expectancy at birth, net overseas migration and net interstate migration, whereas Series A and Series C are based on high and low assumptions for each of these variables respectively. POPULATION SIZE AND GROWTH Australia's estimated resident population (ERP) at 30 June 2007 of 21.0 million people is projected to increase to between 30.9 and 42.5 million people by 2056, and to between 33.7 and 62.2 million people by 2101. Series A projects the highest growth, while Series C projects the lowest growth. In the last 2 years, Australia's population has grown by 1.5% per year, with NOM contributing more to population growth than natural increase in the year ended 30 June 2007. In 2006-07, there were 274,300 births and 134,800 deaths in Australia, resulting in natural increase of 139,500 people, while NOM contributed 177,600 people to Australia's population. The median age of Australia's population (36.8 years at 30 June 2007) is projected to increase to between 38.7 years and 40.7 years in 2026 (Series A and C respectively) and to between 41.9 years and 45.2 years in 2056 (Series A and C). This proportion is projected to increase to between 23% and 25% in 2056 (Series B and C respectively) and to between 25% and 28% in 2101 (Series B and C). The proportion of people aged under 15 years is projected to decrease from 19% in 2007 to between 15% and 18% in 2056 (Series C and A respectively) and to between 14% and 17% in 2101 (Series C and A). By 2056 the population of New South Wales is projected to reach 10.2 million people, an increase of 3.3 million people (or 48%) since 30 June 2007, while Victoria is projected to reach 8.5 million people, an increase of 3.3 million people (or 64%). Queensland is projected to experience the largest percentage increase in population between 30 June 2007 and 2056, more than doubling the 2007 population of 4.2 million to 8.7 million people by 2056. Although a smaller absolute increase than those projected for the larger states, this is a significant increase (87%) relative to the Northern Territory's population of 214,900 people in 2007. Series A and C Compared to Series B, Series A assumes higher levels of components of population change (fertility, life expectancy, and migration) while Series C assumes lower levels. This is mainly due to the larger levels of internal migration losses assumed for Sydney (a net -48,000 people per year) compared to Melbourne (a net -15,000 people per year) in this series.